Adjusting for Confounding in Early Postlaunch Settings: Going beyond Logistic Regression Models

Copyright © 2015 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved. Background: Postlaunch data on medical treatments can be analyzed to explore adverse events or relative effectiveness in real-life settings. These analyses are often complicated by the number of potential confounders and the possibility of model misspecification. Methods: We conducted a simulation study to compare the performance of logistic regression, propensity score, disease risk score, and stabilized inverse probability weighting methods to adjust for confounding. Model misspecification was induced in the independent derivation dataset. We evaluated performance using relative bias confidence interval coverage of the true effect, among other metrics. Results: At low events per coefficient (1.0 and 0.5), the logistic regression estimates had a large relative bias (greater than-100%). Bias of the disease risk score estimates was at most 13.48% and 18.83%. For the propensity score model, this was 8.74% and >100%, respectively. At events per coefficient of 1.0 and 0.5, inverse probability weighting frequently failed or reduced to a crude regression, resulting in biases of-8.49% and 24.55%. Coverage of logistic regression estimates became less than the nominal level at events per coefficient ≤5. For the disease risk score, inverse probability weighting, and propensity score, coverage became less than nominal at events per coefficient ≤2.5, ≤1.0, and ≤1.0, respectively. Bias of misspecified disease risk score models was 16.55%. Conclusion: In settings with low events/exposed subjects per coefficient, disease risk score methods can be useful alternatives to logistic regression models, especially when propensity score models cannot be used. Despite better performance of disease risk score methods than logistic regression and propensity score models in small events per coefficient settings, bias, and coverage still deviated from nominal

Determinants of DNA yield and purity collected with buccal cell samples

Buccal cells are an important source of DNA in epidemiological studies, but little is known about factors that influence amount and purity of DNA. We assessed these factors in a self-administered buccal cell collection procedure, obtained with three cotton swabs. In 2,451 patients DNA yield and in 1,033 patients DNA purity was assessed. Total DNA yield ranged from 0.08 to 1078.0 μg (median 54.3 μg; mean 82.2 μg ± SD 92.6). The median UV 260:280 ratio, was 1.95. Samples from men yielded significantly more DNA (median 58.7 μg) than those from women (median 44.2 μg). Diuretic drug users had significantly lower purity (median 1.92) compared to other antihypertensive drug users (1.95). One technician obtained significantly lower DNA yields. Older age was associated with lower DNA purity. In conclusion, DNA yield from buccal swabs was higher in men and DNA purity was associated with age and the use of diuretics

Blood pressure variability and cardiovascular risk in the PROspective study of pravastatin in the elderly at risk (PROSPER)

Variability in blood pressure predicts cardiovascular disease in young- and middle-aged subjects, but relevant data for older individuals are sparse. We analysed data from the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) study of 5804 participants aged 70–82 years with a history of, or risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Visit-to-visit variability in blood pressure (standard deviation) was determined using a minimum of five measurements over 1 year; an inception cohort of 4819 subjects had subsequent in-trial 3 years follow-up; longer-term follow-up (mean 7.1 years) was available for 1808 subjects. Higher systolic blood pressure variability independently predicted long-term follow-up vascular and total mortality (hazard ratio per 5 mmHg increase in standard deviation of systolic blood pressure = 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.4; hazard ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.2, respectively). Variability in diastolic blood pressure associated with increased risk for coronary events (hazard ratio 1.5, 95% confidence interval 1.2–1.8 for each 5 mmHg increase), heart failure hospitalisation (hazard ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.8) and vascular (hazard ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.7) and total mortality (hazard ratio 1.3, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.5), all in long-term follow-up. Pulse pressure variability was associated with increased stroke risk (hazard ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.4 for each 5 mmHg increase), vascular mortality (hazard ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.3) and total mortality (hazard ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.2), all in long-term follow-up. All associations were independent of respective mean blood pressure levels, age, gender, in-trial treatment group (pravastatin or placebo) and prior vascular disease and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Our observations suggest variability in diastolic blood pressure is more strongly associated with vascular or total mortality than is systolic pressure variability in older high-risk subjects

The impact of prior outpatient ACE inhibitor use on 30-day mortality for patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia

BACKGROUND: Recent studies suggest that angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors may have beneficial effects for patients at risk for some types of infections. We examined the effect of prior outpatient use of ACE inhibitors on mortality for patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study conducted at two tertiary teaching hospitals. Eligible subjects were admitted with a diagnosis of, had a chest x-ray consistent with, and had a discharge ICD-9 diagnosis of pneumonia. Subjects were excluded if they were "comfort measures only" or transferred from another acute care hospital. Subjects were considered to be on a medication if they were taking it at the time of presentation. RESULTS: Data was abstracted on 787 subjects at the two hospitals. Mortality was 9.2% at 30-days and 13.6% at 90-days. At presentation 52% of subjects were low risk, 34% were moderate risk, and 14% were high risk. In the multivariable conditional logistic regression analysis, after adjusting for potential confounders, the use of ACE inhibitors at presentation (odds ratio 0.44, 95% confidence interval 0.22–0.89) was significantly associated with 30-day mortality. CONCLUSION: Prior outpatient use of an ACE inhibitor was associated with decreased mortality in patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia despite their use being associated with comorbid illnesses likely to contribute to increased mortality. Confirmatory studies are needed, as well as research to determine the mechanism(s) of this protective effect

Impact of statins and ACE inhibitors on mortality after COPD exacerbations

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The purpose of our study was to examine the association of prior outpatient use of statins and angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors on mortality for subjects ≥ 65 years of age hospitalized with acute COPD exacerbations.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We conducted a retrospective national cohort study using Veterans Affairs administrative data including subjects ≥65 years of age hospitalized with a COPD exacerbation. Our primary analysis was a multilevel model with the dependent variable of 90-day mortality and hospital as a random effect, controlling for preexisting comorbid conditions, demographics, and other medications prescribed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We identified 11,212 subjects with a mean age of 74.0 years, 98% were male, and 12.4% of subjects died within 90-days of hospital presentation. In this cohort, 20.3% of subjects were using statins, 32.0% were using ACE inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARB). After adjusting for potential confounders, current statin use (odds ratio 0.51, 95% confidence interval 0.40–0.64) and ACE inhibitor/ARB use (0.55, 0.46–0.66) were significantly associated with decreased 90-day mortality.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Use of statins and ACE inhibitors prior to admission is associated with decreased mortality in subjects hospitalized with a COPD exacerbation. Randomized controlled trials are needed to examine whether the use of these medications are protective for those patients with COPD exacerbations.</p

Antibiotic use and risk of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: a population-based case–control study

Antibiotic use in 759 non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) patients and 589 controls was compared. Neither total antibiotic use (odds ratio=0.7, 95% confidence interval=0.5–1.2), nor antibiotic use by site, was associated with total NHL, or NHL subtypes. There were no trends with frequency or age at first use (P trend=0.23 and 0.26, respectively)